Introduction
As Bitcoin (BTC) inches closer to its historic $100,000 milestone in early May 2025, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has raised alarms about a potential market correction. The firm’s latest analysis highlights a surge in unrealized profits among long-term investors, a pattern historically linked to intensified selling pressure. This warning comes amid conflicting signals from analysts, with some predicting a bullish breakout and others cautioning about technical vulnerabilities in the order book.
Glassnode’s Alert: Unrealized Profits Near Critical Threshold
Glassnode’s on-chain data reveals that the cumulative unrealized profit of Bitcoin holders has approached 350%, a level that has preceded major sell-offs in past cycles. This metric measures the total gain (or loss) for all Bitcoin investors compared to their purchase prices. When this figure spikes above 300%, it often signals that large investors, or “whales,” are preparing to offload their holdings to lock in profits.
According to Glassnode, the risk of a sell-off intensifies if Bitcoin’s price surpasses $100,000. “This would require significant demand to absorb the distribution and maintain upward momentum,” the firm warned. Historical precedents, such as the 2021 bull run, show that prolonged rallies fueled by speculative frenzy often collapse when profit-taking overwhelms buying pressure.
Trader TheKingfisher Flags Liquidity Imbalances
Adding to Glassnode’s concerns, veteran trader TheKingfisher highlighted a critical vulnerability in Bitcoin’s order book. In a May 1, 2025, Twitter post, they noted a “massive wall of LONG liquidations stacked up under ~$91k,” indicating that leveraged long positions are concentrated just below current price levels. Meanwhile, short positions above $96,600 are sparse, creating a precarious imbalance.
“This suggests a potential downside magnet is strong,” TheKingfisher wrote, warning that a sharp correction could trigger cascading liquidations, accelerating the decline. The trader urged caution, citing “weak momentum” in buying activity as a red flag for bulls.
Key Support Levels to Watch: $93,200 and $91,300
Glassnode emphasized two critical price levels that could determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory:
- $93,200: The “cost basis” for speculative traders, derived from on-chain data.
- $91,300: The 111-day moving average (DMA), a widely watched technical indicator.
Analysts at Glassnode cautioned that a failure to hold above these thresholds would likely return Bitcoin to “bearish territory.” “For further growth, these levels must be broken and sustained,” they explained, noting that a breakdown could trigger a retest of $85,000–$87,000 support zones.
Contrasting Views: Bulls vs. Bears
While Glassnode’s warnings paint a cautious outlook, other market observers remain bullish. Presto Research head Peter Chang cited macroeconomic tailwinds, including U.S. dollar weakness and institutional inflows, to justify his $210,000 BTC price target for 2025. Similarly, Standard Chartered analysts doubled down on their $120,000 forecast for Q4 2025, arguing that spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate adoption would sustain demand.
The most aggressive prediction came from Bernstein Research, which floated a $1 million Bitcoin scenario, citing potential adoption by sovereign wealth funds and a “phase of euphoria” akin to the dot-com bubble.
Technical Challenges Amid Record Highs
Bitcoin’s current rally to $96,600 has been fueled by robust spot and futures trading volumes. However, Glassnode’s data underscores a growing divergence between price action and on-chain fundamentals. For instance:
- Exchange Reserves: Bitcoin held on exchanges has fallen to 2.3 million BTC, near all-time lows, reflecting strong retail and institutional accumulation.
- Miner Activity: Miners are holding onto newly minted BTC rather than selling, suggesting confidence in higher prices.
Despite these bullish signals, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) show Bitcoin is overbought, increasing the odds of a pullback.
Market Sentiment: Optimism Meets Caution
The crypto community remains divided. Social media sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with hashtags like #BTC100K trending on X (formerly Twitter). Meanwhile, on-chain analysts stress that the market’s health depends on sustained inflows from traditional finance.
“If institutions keep buying, the $100,000 target holds. But retail traders alone won’t sustain it,” said one hedge fund manager specializing in digital assets.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Investors should brace for heightened volatility as Bitcoin approaches $100,000. Key factors to monitor include:
- ETF Inflows: Flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs could absorb profit-taking.
- Macroeconomic Data: CPI and Fed policy updates may sway risk appetite.
- On-Chain Metrics: Watch for sudden shifts in whale activity or exchange balances.
Glassnode’s warnings serve as a timely reminder that Bitcoin’s path to $100,000—or beyond—is unlikely to be linear. While the long-term thesis remains intact, short-term traders must navigate a minefield of technical risks.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s journey to $100,000 is a tale of two narratives: bullish fundamentals clashing with technical vulnerabilities. Glassnode’s analysis underscores the importance of profit-taking risks, while contrasting forecasts—from $120,000 to $1 million—reflect the asset’s speculative allure. For now, the critical test lies in whether Bitcoin can consolidate above $93,200 and $91,300 or risk a correction that shakes weaker hands.