Ethereum briefly tapped the psychological $3,000 barrier in Thursday’s Asian session, its highest print since early March, before backing off to trade around $2,960 at press time. The push came as BlackRock’s spot vehicle, the iShares Ethereum Trust (ticker ETHA), logged a record $300 million net inflow on July 10—more than the fund attracted in its entire first trading week back in January.
Market watchers say the confluence of surging ETF demand, a softening U.S. dollar index and improving on-chain activity set the stage for ETH’s latest rally, which has added nearly 18 % over the past seven days.
Record inflows underscore institutional demand
SoSoValue data show U.S. spot ether ETFs pulled in $476 million on Wednesday, the second-largest daily haul since launch. BlackRock alone accounted for roughly two-thirds of that figure, lifting ETHA’s cumulative holdings above 2 million ETH (~US $6.1 billion). The Block notes that total spot-ETH ETF volume also hit a new high, clearing US $1.2 billion across all issuers.
“These numbers show real traction beyond the initial honeymoon phase,” said Matteo Greco, research analyst at Fineqia, pointing out that inflows arrived despite muted macro data and no major regulatory catalysts this week.
CoinShares’ weekly report corroborates the trend, citing three consecutive weeks of positive flows into ether products after a dismal May.
Price action: triangle breakout targets $3,400
On the charts, ETH broke above a five-month descending trendline Monday and confirmed a symmetrical-triangle breakout at $2,780. FXStreet analysts place the measured-move target near $3,400, provided price secures a daily close above $3,050. BraveNewCoin’s order-book heat map shows stacked sell liquidity between $3,000 and $3,100, the last area of distribution before February’s plunge.
“If bulls flip $3K to support, the path clears toward last summer’s range high at $3,500,” said Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies, adding that rising ETF open interest lends credibility to a sustained move.
What’s driving BlackRock’s appetite?
- Rotation from BTC ETFs. After amassing US $17 billion in its bitcoin vehicle (IBIT), BlackRock appears to be diversifying inflows into ether as relative valuations tighten.
- Staking yield narrative. At current network fees, staked ETH offers a 3.4 % real yield—attractive versus the sub-3 % U.S. 10-year Treasury, according to CoinCentral.
- Regulatory clarity. The CFTC’s May classification of ether as a commodity in its KuCoin settlement removed a lingering overhang for institutional allocators.
Wider market response
- Options skew flips bullish. Deribit 25-delta call skew rose to +7 %, the highest since January, signaling traders are paying more for upside protection.
- Funding rates tick up. Binance ETH perpetual funding hit 0.018 %, the loftiest level in two months, indicating aggressive long positioning.
- Layer-2 tokens ride shotgun. Optimism’s OP and Arbitrum’s ARB gained 11 % and 9 % respectively, tracking core-asset strength.
Cryptonews notes these moves coincide with the second-highest ETF inflow day in five months, underscoring spill-over enthusiasm.
Risks on the horizon
| Risk | Detail |
| Macro data dump | U.S. CPI (July 12) and FOMC (July 31) could roil risk assets if inflation surprises. |
| Profit-taking at $3 k | Order-book data show 64 k ETH for sale between $3 k–$3.1 k on Coinbase and Binance combined. |
| ETF saturation | If inflows stall, momentum traders may unwind leveraged longs, pressuring price back to the breakout zone. |
| Shanghai-locked supply unlock | A batch of long-term stakers from April 2024 reaches the 15-month liquidity window next week, releasing ~240 k ETH. |
Analyst outlook
- Standard Chartered raised its year-end ETH target to $4,000 from $3,500, citing “ETF-driven demand shock.”
- Galaxy Digital remains “tactically overweight” ETH vs. BTC for Q3, expecting relative outperformance as staking yields compress bond spreads.
- TD Cowen urges caution: “Without a clear macro tailwind, $3 k may serve as a magnet rather than a launchpad.”
Trading and investing implications
- Watch ETF flow dashboards. Platforms like SoSoValue update holdings daily by 9 a.m. ET—early clues for price direction.
- Mind gas fees. Higher on-chain activity has lifted average gas to 52 gwei; consider scheduling trades during Asian off-hours.
- Hedge with options. Short-dated $2,800 puts cost 0.04 ETH on Deribit—cheap insurance if $3 k rejection unfolds.
- Layer-2 rotation. Traders looking beyond ETH can target L2 governance tokens, which historically lag core-asset breakouts by 24–48 hours.
Bottom line
The twin engines of record ETF inflows and chart-based breakouts have pushed Ethereum to the doorstep of $3,000 for the first time in four months. BlackRock’s monster $300 million buy underscores institutional conviction, but lingering sell walls and macro catalysts mean the milestone is hardly a done deal.
For now, all eyes remain on daily ETF flow tallies and whether bulls can flip $3 k into a springboard toward $3,400. Either way, the latest surge shows that in 2025, spot ETFs—not just crypto-native demand—are key to Ethereum’s price destiny.