Bitcoin’s latest slide has revived a familiar debate: is this just another bruising correction—or the start of a new bear phase? In a new analysis highlighted by ForkLog, market watcher Axel Adler Jr. warns that three of the most-watched institutional signals are tipping bearish, setting up $87,000 and $74,000 as the key lower levels to watch.
The call: two levels, three bearish signals
Adler Jr. lays out a simple roadmap. First, $87,000 as an initial “catch” zone. If that fails decisively, the chart risk opens to $74,000, a level that many traders still associate with April’s capitulation low. What’s changed, he argues, is that the very indicators that cushioned earlier dips have flipped into resistance. Specifically: Bitcoin trades well below its 200-day moving average (200DMA), a threshold that big funds use for trend classification; price action has carved lower highs and lower lows; and a 50/200 moving-average “death cross” is now looming as the gap between the SMAs narrows. If the cross prints, Adler says, institutional models are likely to mark the market as full-on bearish.
That framing matters because macro-oriented desks often follow rules-based signals. Trading below the 200DMA is a classic “risk-off” trigger in many models, and a death cross can reinforce de-risking just as liquidity thins. As of Adler’s note, BTC was hovering in the mid-$90Ks, off more than 6% on the day.
Flows aren’t helping: second-biggest ETF outflow on record
Sentiment shows up in fund flows, and last week wasn’t pretty. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $869.9 million in daily outflows on Nov. 13—the second-largest on record since launch—dragging assets under management back below $60 billion. Heavy redemptions from the largest products coincided with BTC slipping under $100,000 intraday. When ETF demand softens, price tends to grind into sellers at every bounce, reinforcing overhead resistance.
That backdrop is consistent with other cautious reads. Earlier this year, technical analysts at mainstream outlets warned that a breakdown through key supports could put $73K–$74K back on the table—roughly in line with Adler’s downside marker.
U.S. pressure, taxes, and liquidity
ForkLog’s roundup adds color from other desks tracking the tape. Researchers cited by CryptoQuant point to a cluster of U.S.-specific headwinds: persistent selling pressure on U.S. exchanges (reflected in a negative Coinbase premium), tax-motivated profit-taking by long-term holders into year-end, and a liquidity squeeze tied to the U.S. fiscal backdrop. The pattern they see: Asia bids stabilize price overnight, but U.S. hours sell the bounce, keeping BTC heavy.
At the same time, some analysts argue that macro clouds could clear quickly. With Washington’s latest budget standoff resolved, liquidity gauges may improve and risk appetite could rebuild, potentially helping crypto stabilize. In past episodes, markets found a local bottom soon after policy uncertainty faded—though timing remains the wild card.
Not everyone agrees it’s a bear market
There are credible counterpoints. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, notes that a large cohort of buyers from six to twelve months ago sits near a $94K cost basis. In his view, the bear cycle isn’t confirmed unless that level gives way decisively. That stance reflects a pragmatic middle ground: respect the warning signs, but wait for a clean break of widely watched support before declaring the regime change.
Other analysts also caution against over-reading a single week of bad data. ETFs have posted record inflows and outflows within the same quarter this year; the direction of the next few weekly prints could matter more than one shock day, especially if macro conditions (rates, liquidity) stabilize.
How the $74K scenario could unfold
Technically, the map is straightforward. If BTC can reclaim and hold the 200DMA, the death-cross risk fades and trend followers may cover shorts. If it fails and rolls over, the market will look for high-volume, high-timeframe acceptance at the next structural levels. Adler’s $87K is the first such zone; lose that, and the market will test whether buyers defend the mid-$70Ks where earlier capitulation occurred. The case isn’t about crash-calling; it’s about path dependency: a series of failed retests tends to draw price to the next shelf.
It’s also worth noting that independent technicians and bank strategists have flagged similar levels. Earlier in the cycle, a $73K target surfaced in traditional finance coverage as a measured move from a breakdown of a major neckline—evidence that, while methodologies differ, mid-$70Ks sits on many watchlists.
Conclusion
The bear-phase, $74K scenario isn’t a sensational headline; it’s a rules-based read of the tape from an analyst who’s watching the same signals many big desks do. Right now, those signals—sub-200DMA, lower highs/lows, and a pending death cross—skew defensive, and ETF outflows aren’t yet contradicting the caution. Bulls still have outs: hold the $94K–$98.5K region, reclaim the 200DMA, and let flows stabilize. Until then, the market will treat $87K and $74K as the places price could probe to find real conviction again.